Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
